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July 5, 2013

The longer the unemployment, the harder it is to get callbacks

  • 45% the decline in callback rates for someone who has been unemployed for eight months or longer, according to a recent study. Something to keep in mind when reading about the unemployment rate today, which stood steady at 7.6% today but rose by half a percentage point to 14.3% for the wider U-6 unemployment rate, which includes people not currently looking for work or who are working part-time because they cannot find full-time work. source
19:53 // 1 year ago
February 1, 2013

Another month of modest job gains, but unemployment rate rises

  • 157k the number of jobs added to the economy in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics latest report. The unemployment rate (U-3, not U-6) jumped to 7.9 percent. The U-6 stayed steady at 14.4 percent. The U-3 rate needs to hit 6.5 percent before the Federal Reserve will consider raising interest rates. source
11:00 // 1 year ago
October 5, 2012

Reasons to Believe There Is Something Wrong With BLS Reporting

thecallus:

1. Every Thursday for something like the last year, the previous week’s new claim report was quietly revised up.

2. This year’s early-season data was adjusting heavily for weather even though we had a very warm Winter. There is reason to believe employment conditions were overstated, meaning late-year reports will have to understate jobs.

3. Birth-death adjustments have been abnormally high and are rumored to be overstating exits from the economy significantly.

4. We are at historic lows for LF participation rate. This has benign explanations and not-so-benign explanations. One of the pieces of really bad news is that many of these folks are erroneously removed from the labor force by virtue of falling off of long-term unemployment rolls at historic rates after occupying them at historic rates.

5. Nearly all the jobs added since 2009 are bad ones: part time, under-employing jobs. Jobs are not created equal, and the ones created under this administration suck.

What do you guys think?

(via thecallus-deactivated20130520)

9:07 // 1 year ago
September 8, 2012
thedailyfeed:

Yesterday’s dismal jobs report showed the lowest labor participation rate in 31 years. 

Employers added only 96,000 workers in August, down sharply from the 141,000 in July and well below the 100,000 to 150,000 jobs needed just to keep pace with growth in the labor market.
The weak report aside, the unemployment rate still dropped — from 8.3 percent to 8.1 percent — because many of the out-of-work simply gave up. And only two out of three working-age Americans either had a job or were looking for one last month, the lowest level since Ronald Reagan took office.
“The economy is crawling up the down escalator,” said Patrick O’Keefe, head of economic research at financial consulting firm J.H. Cohn in Roseland, N.J.


Potential presidential debate question: How do we encourage people who have given up on finding work to  ”participate” again?

thedailyfeed:

Yesterday’s dismal jobs report showed the lowest labor participation rate in 31 years

Employers added only 96,000 workers in August, down sharply from the 141,000 in July and well below the 100,000 to 150,000 jobs needed just to keep pace with growth in the labor market.

The weak report aside, the unemployment rate still dropped — from 8.3 percent to 8.1 percent — because many of the out-of-work simply gave up. And only two out of three working-age Americans either had a job or were looking for one last month, the lowest level since Ronald Reagan took office.

“The economy is crawling up the down escalator,” said Patrick O’Keefe, head of economic research at financial consulting firm J.H. Cohn in Roseland, N.J.

Potential presidential debate question: How do we encourage people who have given up on finding work to  ”participate” again?

(via thedailyfeed)

14:17 // 2 years ago
July 8, 2012

Despite educational push, high-flying science jobs hard to come by

  • push In recent years, the National Science Foundation and other major science-related groups have pushed for universities to churn out more scientists, and Obama has encouraged more science education in schools.
  • problem Unfortunately, lab-based science jobs are proving hard to come by — academic jobs are scarce, and the pharmaceutical industry has cut hundreds of thousands of jobs over the past decade. We’re talking about unemployed PhDs. source

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11:27 // 2 years ago
July 6, 2012

June’s unemployment rate, in one word: Unchanged

  • 8.2% unemployment rate in June (it’s unchanged)
  • 80k number of jobs created in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report
  • 77k number of jobs created in May, based on revised numbers; June was a marginal improvement
  • 100k number of jobs economists expected to be created in June; the sound of failure source

» Does little improvement = decline? That’s Ezra Klein’s argument on the report. “In this economy, little or no change isn’t good enough,” he says. “We added 80,000 jobs in June. That’s not enough to keep up with population growth. So, in the context of our growing workforce, the labor market lost ground last month.”

» Editor’s note: And because this comes up EVERY SINGLE MONTH, the unemployment rate above is the U3 unemployment rate, the standard that the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses. If you use the U6 unemployment rate (which includes people unemployed but not currently looking for work, or working part-time for economic reasons), it jumps to 14.9 percent, which is up from last month.

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10:16 // 2 years ago
April 12, 2012
Jill Biden and I started this initiative to make sure that this country - which is a grateful nation - to make sure that we do whatever we can to honor the service of our troops, our veterans, and their families.
First Lady Michelle Obama • Promoting Joining Forces, her campaign with Jill Biden, on The Colbert Report. Last night, Stephen Colbert tweeted “Supporting our troops takes more than wearing a ribbon, unless that ribbon says, “I just hired a U.S. Veteran.” @JoiningForces.” His guest on Wednesday night’s show was FLOTUS Michelle Obama; she was there to promote Joining Forces, “the initiative she and Jill Biden co-founded last year to encourage support for military families.” The goal of the initiative is to reduce the unemployment rate of veterans. Visit the Colbert Nation's website to watch clips from the episode. source (viafollow)
21:04 // 2 years ago
March 19, 2012
We need a candidate who’s going to be a fighter for freedom. Who’s going to get up and make that the central theme in this race because it is the central theme in this race. I don’t care what the unemployment rate’s going to be. Doesn’t matter to me. My campaign doesn’t hinge on unemployment rates and growth rates. It’s something more foundational that’s going on.
Rick Santorum • Misjudging what the central theme of the race is.
20:05 // 2 years ago
March 10, 2012
Based on one report, it’s as if the president’s full economic agenda is either brilliant or moronic. Get good numbers and you’re Keynes reincarnate. Get bad numbers and you can’t add.
Vice President Biden’s former chief economist Jared Bernstein • Discussing the process that goes into the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment reports, reports which have taken on new importance as the 2012 election hits. (The numbers showed slight improvement Friday, with the unemployment rate staying steady but jobs levels increasing.) Highly recommend you read the Washington Post’s piece on the matter, which goes in depth explaining exactly what happens to bring those numbers — numbers which can define the entire debate over the next month — to reality. It’s fascinating.
10:52 // 2 years ago
December 3, 2010

Here are some more of those depressing jobs numbers you love

  • 39k the number of jobs added to payrolls in November
  • 172k the number of jobs added in the less-depressing prior month
  • 9.8% the unemployment rate, which is up (!) from October source
10:38 // 3 years ago