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April 6, 2011

Trump’s polling paints a muddy picture

  • yeah… In the latest WSJ/NBC poll, The Donald trumped his opponents, vaulting ahead of Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich and tying Mike Huckabee for second place. He also came in second in a New Hampshire poll, losing out to Willard “Mitt” Romney.
  • but In last week’s PPP poll, Trump scored an approval rating of just 28% (with net approval at -18), and lost a hypothetical match-up to President Obama by 11 points. He also came in a dismal fifth amongst primary voters in a recent CNN pollsource

» What to make of this: By and large, the takeaway here is that the Republican field is very weak, and there’s no clear favorite (Huckabee and Romney could perhaps be considered “co-favorites”). Trump has done well in a few polls, but this is more likely due to a) boredom on the part of primary voters, and b) Trump’s recent media blitz. It’s difficult to imagine a candidate with such toxic approval ratings winning a national election; he’d have to win over an additional 18% of voters just to break even. That being said, 26% of voters in the PPP poll haven’t yet made up their mind about Trump, giving him lots of room to grow. Still, we agree with Christian Heinz over at The Hill, who noted that Trump’s numbers illustrate “the tremendous thirst for a new, charismatic candidate” in the GOP primary. Charismatic? You betcha. Electable? We’re not so sure.

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22:49 // 3 years ago