In the same poll: Voters trust Hillary Clinton on Benghazi more than congressional Republicans by a 10 point margin; a net +18 percent of respondents would rather congress focus on immigration reform than Benghazi; and voters were split 45/45 on whether Benghazi is more or less of a scandal than Watergate (although that broke down mostly on partisan lines).
It’s a little early to know exactly what we can learn from social media metrics. I think the way we’ll be looking at this stuff will be very different in four years, in eight years, in twelve years. For right now, we’re kind of in an awkward adolescent age … we’re out of the classical innocent era of our youth where you could just call someone on the phone. But we’re not sure what the substitute for that is yet.With all the recent brewhaha about Nate Silver’s controversial projections for tonight’s outcome, and while we’re all waiting for some legit data to come back from the polls, it seems like a good time to revisit our exclusive interview with Mr. Silver back in September. Enjoy! (via election)
The Times has Obama up nine in Florida, ten in Ohio, 12 in Pennsylvania.
A national Bloomberg poll has Obama up six. 50 percent unfavorables for Romney.
Then there’s Nate Silver, who puts Obama’s odds of winning at 80 percent.
Might be a quirk, but our Obama forecast has increased by 7% (80% chance of winning the EC from 73%) since Romney’s 47% comments came out.— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) September 26, 2012
But all of this is wrong because sampling.
For what it’s worth, the RealClearPolitics averages have Obama up by 3.7 points nationwide, which is outside of the margin of error.