In the same poll: Voters trust Hillary Clinton on Benghazi more than congressional Republicans by a 10 point margin; a net +18 percent of respondents would rather congress focus on immigration reform than Benghazi; and voters were split 45/45 on whether Benghazi is more or less of a scandal than Watergate (although that broke down mostly on partisan lines).
It’s a little early to know exactly what we can learn from social media metrics. I think the way we’ll be looking at this stuff will be very different in four years, in eight years, in twelve years. For right now, we’re kind of in an awkward adolescent age … we’re out of the classical innocent era of our youth where you could just call someone on the phone. But we’re not sure what the substitute for that is yet.With all the recent brewhaha about Nate Silver’s controversial projections for tonight’s outcome, and while we’re all waiting for some legit data to come back from the polls, it seems like a good time to revisit our exclusive interview with Mr. Silver back in September. Enjoy! (via election)
The Times has Obama up nine in Florida, ten in Ohio, 12 in Pennsylvania.
A national Bloomberg poll has Obama up six. 50 percent unfavorables for Romney.
Then there’s Nate Silver, who puts Obama’s odds of winning at 80 percent.
Might be a quirk, but our Obama forecast has increased by 7% (80% chance of winning the EC from 73%) since Romney’s 47% comments came out.— Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) September 26, 2012
But all of this is wrong because sampling.
For what it’s worth, the RealClearPolitics averages have Obama up by 3.7 points nationwide, which is outside of the margin of error.
The bump is actually happening. I know there was some debate whether it would happen… but it’s here.Ipsos pollster Julia Clark • Referring to speculation over a polling bounce in favor of President Obama, as a result of the Democratic National Convention. The Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released today, from a pool of 1,457 likely voters, shows Obama with a 4 point lead over GOP rival Mitt Romney, 47% – 43%. source
musingsbymattheous-deactivated2 asks: Wheeee did the creator of your 'educational' political graphic get their facts? As a registered Independent, I (and many people like me) aren't part of a party. We're not homophobic/Christian Republicans, nor are we Democrats. We think for ourselves.
» SFB says: It has a link directly on the image as far as where they got their poll results. I don’t think they’re lumping independents or moderates in with ideological views at all, rather just using the results and pointing out the general lean. Pew did an in-depth study on the matter, and the graphic uses actual poll data. For what it’s worth, I don’t think they’re trying to pinhole independents or moderates in any way, just using data to see if they can understand where they lean as a whole on various issues. I think the chart is trying to dispel the idea that moderates are automatically independents more than anything. — Ernie @ SFB
» That’s compared to 1 percent for Romney: While that stat (from a Washington Post poll) doesn’t say everything about the election, the lopsidedness of this one stat is pretty stunning. Overall in the state, Obama is ahead of Romney 51 percent to 44 percent, with the president leading among independents, women and younger voters, and Romney leading among whites and men. (hat tip to The Fix)
One of the perks of being an early employee...
Over the last 90 days, the Digg...
Thanks. I guess my thoughts are as follows:
1. I think...
thesoapboxschtick asks: Love the Quipol! That's so cool, I didn't know you could do that on Tumblr. Definitely make it a regular feature
» SFB says: It’s pretty awesome for sure. Glad you like it. Max Yoder, the guy who came up with the idea for it, is super-friendly, and he’s rightly been getting some attention for what he’s been doing with Quipol. Love the simplicity of the approach; it’s as easy to make a poll as it is to vote for it. We’ve done polling before and found it took way too much time. — Ernie @ SFB
» A decline in the overall numbers: According to the Death Penalty Information Center, the death sentence number is the smallest since the death penalty was reinstated in 1976. And public support is starting to fade: According to stats from Gallup, support for the death penalty is at its lowest level in nearly 40 years. Opposition is at its highest level since 1972. Keep this in mind when Rick Perry leads a crowd to cheers during a discussion about the death penalty. Or when cases like Troy Davis’ widely-contested execution build support against the death penalty.
curiousontheroad said: Do these polls mean anything at this time? We haven’t even had the first primary yet, and last election season polls were notoriously unreliable. And what’s the margin of error on this one? Aren’t Romney and Cain just statistically tied?
mdt says: Well, Trump was once at 26%. Perry has been as high as 29%. Bachmann hit 30% a while back. All meaningless. These polls don’t equate well to measuring the dynamics of the primaries. Cain hasn’t visited Iowa since the straw poll. He’ll collapse.
» SFB says: Ok, let’s be fair. It’s still early, and the lead has changed many times already. Look at this less as a barometer of who’s going to be president and more as a barometer of focus: We’re going to hear a lot from Cain at the next debate and in the press as a result of this. The secret for him will be to actually keep it up and build upon his polling, which Mitt has done well. And to the margin-of-error-question, the PPP poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent, meaning that, in this poll, he’s straight-up ahead. The NBC News/WSJ poll, however, has a plus/minus of 5.35 percent, which means that in that one, they’re statistically tied. Ultimately, though, even considering that, he essentially was a non-entity two months ago, so this is a significant jump. — Ernie @ SFB