• 2 years, at the very earliest, until Iran has a nuclear weapon source

» That is, if it’s even developing one. According to Reuters, it’s the consensus among Israel, the US, and European allies that not only is Iran is a long way from developing a nuclear weapon; there’s a good chance it’s not even actively attempting to do so. A communications intercept from 2006 or 2007 revealed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, a top Iranian officer and physicist, complaining that the country’s leadership had halted its weaponization program. US intelligence ultimately concluded that, while Iran has likely taken steps to allow for the possibility of future warhead construction, it hasn’t had an active nuclear weapons program since 2003. The whole report is very much worth reading; it’s one of the most in-depth, detailed examinations of the subject we’ve ever seen.

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