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June 17, 2012

French parliament elections: Mostly Socialists, most of the time

  • 307 seats gained by the French Socialist party Sunday source

» Hollande has his mandate: Good news for Francois Hollande — getting stuff through the parliament is gonna be a breeze if he can keep his party on message. Needing 289 seats to take the majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, the party did way better than that. This is on top of already holding the Senate. ”This gives power and a backbone to the government,” notes Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici. In other election-related news, the Conservatives scored 224 seats, and the far-right National Front, for the first time in decades, scored a foothold in the assembly, winning three seats. However, one of those wasn’t won by the party’s face, Marine Le Pen — she lost in a close race, but her 22-year-old niece won.

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23:07 // 1 year ago
May 1, 2012
I will not grant my trust, or a mandate, to these two candidates. … On Sunday, I will cast a blank ballot.
Marine Le Pen • Speaking about her plans to endorse no candidate in the second round of the French presidential election — a huge blow to President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has taken some isolationist cues from Le Pen’s party and needs those votes to top Socialist Francois Hollande, who won the first round. While Le Pen didn’t encourage other voters to do likewise, her decision does have the potential to influence 6.4 million voters to do the same.
10:13 // 1 year ago
April 22, 2012
jakke:

France had the first round of its presidential election today. To no one’s surprise, Socialist candidate Francois Hollande leads incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy in the exit polls. However, horrible far-right Marine Le Pen is doing way better than was predicted by polling. What happened here? Was this a random sampling mishap, or are voters lying about their choice?
On Friday, five separate polling agencies released polls based on samples taken over Wednesday and Thursday (available here, here, here, here, and here). These should be reasonably close to how people actually voted, and since they’re all polling all of France at the same time they should be sampling the same distribution of voters. So based on those polls, what’s the likelihood of the exit poll outcome we saw today?
Oh the graph above, the bell curves represent what the last five polls predict, and the horizontal dashed lines indicate the actual exit poll results. For Hollande and Sarkozy, then polling did a good job; the polls are pretty close to the middle of the bell curve. For (despicable bigot) Le Pen, though, the actual vote share was way higher than what the polls predicted. What happened here? There are three possibilities:
The polling agencies all just randomly picked a sample without very many Le Pen voters. As you can see from this graph, this possibility is so far out at the end of the bell curve that it barely even registers.
Lots of people changed their votes over the weekend. Millions of French people woke up Sunday morning with their mind totally changed and marched out to vote for Le Pen even though previously they’d been set on another candidate. This is definitely possible, although Le Pen never touched 20% support in any poll in the last two months.
Voters are lying to pollsters because they don’t want to admit (even to a stranger) that they are the pathetic small-minded racists who would vote for Le Pen.
Almost certain that #3 is what’s going on here. This has scary implications for polling European elections, because it indicates that as voter dissatisfaction with the eurozone and the response of the mainstream parties to the ongoing crisis grows we might see some really unpleasant surprise election results over the next couple years.

Great analysis of the French presidential election. Of note — Le Pen toppled the first-round score her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, scored in 2002, a showing which her party suggests solidifies her long-term potential. Read up more on the election over here.

jakke:

France had the first round of its presidential election today. To no one’s surprise, Socialist candidate Francois Hollande leads incumbent Nicholas Sarkozy in the exit polls. However, horrible far-right Marine Le Pen is doing way better than was predicted by polling. What happened here? Was this a random sampling mishap, or are voters lying about their choice?

On Friday, five separate polling agencies released polls based on samples taken over Wednesday and Thursday (available here, here, here, here, and here). These should be reasonably close to how people actually voted, and since they’re all polling all of France at the same time they should be sampling the same distribution of voters. So based on those polls, what’s the likelihood of the exit poll outcome we saw today?

Oh the graph above, the bell curves represent what the last five polls predict, and the horizontal dashed lines indicate the actual exit poll results. For Hollande and Sarkozy, then polling did a good job; the polls are pretty close to the middle of the bell curve. For (despicable bigot) Le Pen, though, the actual vote share was way higher than what the polls predicted. What happened here? There are three possibilities:

  1. The polling agencies all just randomly picked a sample without very many Le Pen voters. As you can see from this graph, this possibility is so far out at the end of the bell curve that it barely even registers.
  2. Lots of people changed their votes over the weekend. Millions of French people woke up Sunday morning with their mind totally changed and marched out to vote for Le Pen even though previously they’d been set on another candidate. This is definitely possible, although Le Pen never touched 20% support in any poll in the last two months.
  3. Voters are lying to pollsters because they don’t want to admit (even to a stranger) that they are the pathetic small-minded racists who would vote for Le Pen.

Almost certain that #3 is what’s going on here. This has scary implications for polling European elections, because it indicates that as voter dissatisfaction with the eurozone and the response of the mainstream parties to the ongoing crisis grows we might see some really unpleasant surprise election results over the next couple years.

Great analysis of the French presidential election. Of note — Le Pen toppled the first-round score her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, scored in 2002, a showing which her party suggests solidifies her long-term potential. Read up more on the election over here.

16:53 // 2 years ago
May 15, 2011
He’s definitely discredited. The case and the charges mark the end of his campaign for the presidency, and will likely prompt the IMF to ask him to leave his post.
French National Front party leader Marine Le Pen • Sticking the dagger into Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the International Monetary Fund leader charged with the attempted sexual assault of a maid in a NYC hotel. Le Pen is not an unbiased party: Strauss-Kahn, a member of France’s Socialist party, was a likely favorite in the 2012 elections in France, and his arrest puts Le Pen’s own party at a major advantage. But that said, other politicians in the country are reacting with shock about the whole thing. For example, Bernard Debré, a member of Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMD party, calls the charges “a humiliation and an affront to the honor of France. Everyone will now say, ‘Look at what the French do.’” Strauss-Kahn’s own Socialist party is keeping mum for now. source (viafollow)
11:01 // 2 years ago
March 28, 2011

Tough times for Sarkozy in wake of French elections

  • 35.7% the vote, in yesterday’s French elections, for the Socialist Party under Martine Aubry
  • 11.6% the vote for the far-right National Front Party, headed by Marine LePen, a strong showing
  • 20.3% the vote for Nicolas Sarkozy’s Union for a Popular Majority Party, a weak outcome source

» Sarkozy may be sweating right now: The election had a low turnout at just 45% of the nation’s voters (still, turnout like that trounces the U.S. average for non-Presidential elections). While the threat to President Sarkozy posed by the Socialists is well known, as polls show him trailing their yet unknown candidate in his reelection effort, the big takeaway concern may be the rising power of the National Front Party under Marine Le Pen. The far-right nationalist party took 2 seats in the 102-seat general council, and have effectively flexed more political muscle much quicker than most thought they could.

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13:19 // 3 years ago
January 17, 2011

Same as the old boss: Marine Le Pen succeeds her father

  • 67% the party vote for Marine Le Pen, who will lead France’s far-right National Front party
  • 38 years that her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, has led the party, which he founded in 1972
  • 18% polling support for the NF, a likely headache for President Sarkozy come election time source
13:24 // 3 years ago