Because the sequester is (and is likely to continue to be) very ill-defined in the minds of most Americans, the politics of it will devolve into a popularity contest between the major players. Which gets us to the fact that Obama is at (or close to) his high-water mark in terms of job approval, while Congress sits in political reporter/used car salesman territory.The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, theorizing that there’s no way possible way Congress can win the sequester battle against President Obama. The thinking here is is based on three premises: One, that Obama believes the sequester ultimately will not be avoided, because Congress is dysfunctional and if they could have struck a deal on these cuts, there wouldn’t have been a sequester to begin with; two, that effects of the sequestered cuts will be felt by many Americans once they come into effect; and three, that Obama is significantly more popular than Congress. Given these three assumptions, it seems reasonable enough to conclude that if the sequester happens, Congress—and the GOP-led House of Representatives—will be blamed by the American public. It’s not a bad theory, though it’s still quite speculative given the assumptions. More information on the sequester here. source
The GOP lost one. The tell-tale signs were everywhere. On a day where John Boehner lost support from the GOP establishment on blocking a payroll tax-cut plan — which mind you, was just for two months, and otherwise would’ve been a big GOP victory because of the Democratic concessions made — the political kayfabe finally gave way to inevitability. Here’s how it went down. (Photo by Gage Skidmore, that guy who takes all the GOP politician photos on Flickr)
This is not a repeat of six months ago.
While it is widely expected that the parties will eventually reach a compromise to avoid a shutdown, Wednesday’s 230-to-195 vote showed what can happen when the GOP majority operates with no more than minimal Democratic support.Washington Post writers Rosalind S. Helderman and Paul Kane • Correctly pointing out the weak spot in the GOP’s House leadership — that the GOP members aren’t all on the same page, so as a result, the leadership can push for one thing, but have it taken in a different direction by far-right members of the party. (In this case, the bill passed the House only with the addition of some timely anti-environmental-funding rules, then died in the Senate.) And with no help from Democrats, it becomes harder for GOP leaders to push their agenda without making room for compromise. And this isn’t even considering the Senate and president, who provide blockades of their own (unless you’re Obama and you compromise). source (via • follow)
He said if we pass Aug. 2, it would be like ‘Star Wars.’ I don’t think the people who are railing against raising the debt ceiling fully understand that.Rep. Scott DesJarlais • Relating Speaker John Boehner’s remarks on a potential failure to raise the debt limit, made during a closed-door meeting today. Boehner was joined in this message by Rep. Paul Ryan, always the House GOP’s top dog on economic affairs. Basically, it seems like the leadership laid out exactly how bad the economy would get if the debt limit isn’t raised, and surprisingly enough, it sounds like it paid off to some measure. Said Arkansas Rep. Steve Womack: “It illustrates to us that doing nothing is unacceptable. I think the conference understands this is a defining moment for us. It’s time to put the next election aside.” If this is indicative of any genuine attitude House GOP membership, this could be huge news. source (via • follow)
Know how Obama ripped the GOP in private for not really focusing on realistic things? All our president has to do to make the House GOP look like total idiots is point out — in public — how they’re wasting everyone’s time by passing bills which include things that will, never, ever get through the Senate, let alone to his desk. We reiterate, if the American people want Paul Ryan’s vision, they should vote for it in 2012.
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