curiousontheroad said: Do these polls mean anything at this time? We haven’t even had the first primary yet, and last election season polls were notoriously unreliable. And what’s the margin of error on this one? Aren’t Romney and Cain just statistically tied?
mdt says: Well, Trump was once at 26%. Perry has been as high as 29%. Bachmann hit 30% a while back. All meaningless. These polls don’t equate well to measuring the dynamics of the primaries. Cain hasn’t visited Iowa since the straw poll. He’ll collapse.
» SFB says: Ok, let’s be fair. It’s still early, and the lead has changed many times already. Look at this less as a barometer of who’s going to be president and more as a barometer of focus: We’re going to hear a lot from Cain at the next debate and in the press as a result of this. The secret for him will be to actually keep it up and build upon his polling, which Mitt has done well. And to the margin-of-error-question, the PPP poll has a margin of error of 4.5 percent, meaning that, in this poll, he’s straight-up ahead. The NBC News/WSJ poll, however, has a plus/minus of 5.35 percent, which means that in that one, they’re statistically tied. Ultimately, though, even considering that, he essentially was a non-entity two months ago, so this is a significant jump. — Ernie @ SFB