Wanna labor through a presidential forum? There are two GOP events this week, including one on Wednesday and this presidential forum happening right now in South Carolina. Jim DeMint, above, is playing host. Watch over here. We’ll have a roundup later today.
It’s almost decision time in Ames, Iowa, where many of the contenders for the GOP presidential nomination are fighting hard to win the Iowa straw poll (explained here). Iowans continue to vote up until 5 p.m. ET, on Saturday, with the winners announced between 7 p.m. ET and 8 p.m. ET.
To get the inside scoop from Ames, DC Decoder recently spoke with Linda Feldmann, the Christian Science Monitor’s White House reporter, who is in Ames today. Listen to Linda’s interview above and read her story today on the cultural flavor of the straw poll.
Here are three highlights from the conversation.
1. True or False: Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s campaign will be ongoing in a month if he finishes lower than second in the Iowa straw poll?
Feldmann: False.
2. True or False: Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the strong frontrunner, and as such finishing anything less than first would be a big disappointment.
Feldmann: True.
I think she’s in a good position to finish first. Ron Paul could surprise everybody, as he’s very well organized. Michele Bachmann definitely faces major expectations that she comes in first. Anything less will take some of the shine off of her star, especially with [Texas Gov.] Rick Perry getting into the race today.3. True or False: The Ames straw poll is a good barometer of the GOP presidential field right now?
Feldmann: False.
The Ames straw poll tests the organization of the campaigns but its completely unscientific. While organization is important…. so is the ability to inspire, the ability to raise money, [and to have] the type of resume that makes someone electable in the general election….
Tim Pawlenty has been ill served by this process. He just gave a speech here, and it was probably the most inspired and passionate speech I’ve ever seen him give. But it may be too little, too late….
This straw poll today could feel like ancient history in just a few days after we see Rick Perry’s maiden voyage as a presidential candidate.
Winners? Losers? How did this debate go, anyway? What do you guys think?
Tim Pawlenty vs. Mitt Romney, take two: Not as entertaining as Tim Palwenty vs. Michele Bachmann. Mitt’s take on “Obamneycare”? “I think I like Tim’s answer at the last debate better.” (more at DC Decoder)
Pawlenty’s response: If you can’t see that as effective leadership … “Please stop, because you’re killing us.” Pawlenty is pulling out the ice burns tonight. A huge change from the last debate, where he pulled punches. (see DC Decoder for more)
Why this guy? Because, if we can find a drummer (or perhaps a second bassist), we have a full GOP band. This dude needs a little work on the visual style, though. Thaddeus is a very unrock name, although it is quite presidential.
Tim Pawlenty on trade: “I’m all for free trade, but I’m not for being stupid and I’m not for being a chump.” It’s weird, because you seemed like a chump during that Obamneycare moment.
Obamneycare: Tim Pawlenty really didn’t want to criticize Mitt Romney’s health care plan to his face.
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» What to make of this: By and large, the takeaway here is that the Republican field is very weak, and there’s no clear favorite (Huckabee and Romney could perhaps be considered “co-favorites”). Trump has done well in a few polls, but this is more likely due to a) boredom on the part of primary voters, and b) Trump’s recent media blitz. It’s difficult to imagine a candidate with such toxic approval ratings winning a national election; he’d have to win over an additional 18% of voters just to break even. That being said, 26% of voters in the PPP poll haven’t yet made up their mind about Trump, giving him lots of room to grow. Still, we agree with Christian Heinz over at The Hill, who noted that Trump’s numbers illustrate “the tremendous thirst for a new, charismatic candidate” in the GOP primary. Charismatic? You betcha. Electable? We’re not so sure.
The same day President Obama announced his reelection campaign, GOP hopeful Tim Pawlenty put out another Bruckheimer-esque ad for his own 2012 run at the White House. This has all the charming affectations we’ve come to expect from Pawlenty’s ad shop, which is attempting (transparently, though not unwisely) to paint T-Paw as a more exciting candidate than he’s generally thought to be. We actually think Pawlenty is running a pretty smart campaign, despite the superficially goofy feel of these ads. Whereas nobody took his campaign seriously at its outset, some beltway types are now coalescing around the notion of Pawlenty as the wisest, or at least most plausible, choice for the GOP in 2012. Of course, winning over voters in New Hampshire is a different story entirely. source
» Indecisive in Iowa: The libertarian hero, whose stock is way up since his cred-building 2008 run, made the prediction while visiting Iowa. “I really don’t know,” he says. “Maybe a trip like this will help me make up my mind.”
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