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July 19, 2013
Nate Silver—and by extension his FiveThirtyEight brand—is leaving the New York Times and going to ESPN. Sucks to be the Times, which scored big during the last election because they had him on staff. He’s expected to work closely with this guy on the telly.

Nate Silver—and by extension his FiveThirtyEight brand—is leaving the New York Times and going to ESPN. Sucks to be the Times, which scored big during the last election because they had him on staff. He’s expected to work closely with this guy on the telly.

20:57 // 9 months ago
November 18, 2012
I was looking for something like baseball, where there’s a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That’s when I discovered politics.
Nate Silver • Discussing his move into the political realm after years as a baseball statistics nerd. The Guardian’s piece on Silver is super-fascinating.
13:04 // 1 year ago
November 7, 2012

Evidence Jonah Goldberg has the worst timing

Top: Conservative commentator Jonah Goldberg’s hit piece on Nate Silver, published one hour ago. Bottom Left: The current map on the New York Times home page. Bottom Right: Nate Silver’s map.

1:22 // 1 year ago
November 6, 2012
It’s a little early to know exactly what we can learn from social media metrics. I think the way we’ll be looking at this stuff will be very different in four years, in eight years, in twelve years. For right now, we’re kind of in an awkward adolescent age … we’re out of the classical innocent era of our youth where you could just call someone on the phone. But we’re not sure what the substitute for that is yet.
With all the recent brewhaha about Nate Silver’s controversial projections for tonight’s outcome, and while we’re all waiting for some legit data to come back from the polls, it seems like a good time to revisit our exclusive interview with Mr. Silver back in September. Enjoy! (via election)

Nate Silver is hiding in a dimly-lit room with an iPad and a MacBook Air, hoping his projections are right. 

(via gov)

19:22 // 1 year ago
November 2, 2012

Why people don’t get Nate Silver

election:

stefanjbecket:

Probability is counterintuitive.

The idea that the chance of something happening doesn’t change is hard for us to wrap our heads around. Understandably so—if I tell you that you have a 70 percent chance of making a putt, most people would expect that after ten putts, seven will have gone in the hole. This, however, is not the case. 

That’s what’s hard to grasp about probability, the idea that one result has no effect on what happens in the future.

Read More

Related to this great piece (a topic which Stefan totally beat me to, because I had a half-written, not-as-good take hiding in my drafts) is the rebuke he got from his public editor on Thursday. If you ask me, the New York Times’ public editor, Margaret Sullivan, totally should have run a statistical model on whether that column was a good idea.

— Ernie @ ShortFormBlog

A very smart take on the political journalism topic du jour.

(via gov)

9:17 // 1 year ago
October 27, 2012
13:56 // 1 year ago
August 14, 2011
apsies:

@NateSilver

Looks like Nate already has to update his odds, now with T-Paw out.

apsies:

@NateSilver

Looks like Nate already has to update his odds, now with T-Paw out.

9:38 // 2 years ago
July 25, 2011
Nate sets us straight
A very good point. We tend to forget that, as crazy as it sounds, some people’s idea of fun doesn’t involve reading about the debt limit, America’s credit rating, or parliamentary procedure in the United States Senate. source
Follow ShortFormBlog

A very good point. We tend to forget that, as crazy as it sounds, some people’s idea of fun doesn’t involve reading about the debt limit, America’s credit rating, or parliamentary procedure in the United States Senate. source

Follow ShortFormBlog

22:58 // 2 years ago
November 2, 2010
Just as the conditions promising at least a pretty bad Democratic year have been with us for some time, the uncertainty has been with us all along as well, like a virus with an exceptionally long latency period; on Tuesday, we’ll see which of the polls it has infected.
FiveThirtyEight guy Nate Silver • Offering a key piece of final analysis that we should probably take into the elections today. While the polls have largely remained consistent about how many seats the Democrats will lose and the Republicans will gain, it’s good to keep at least a little bit of perspective no matter how you lean. Remember, back in 1994 the analysts were relatively consistent too, but in the end, the Republicans did way better than most of them expected – by a long shot. No matter the case, you should probably get out there and vote your heart out for both the ballot measures and the candidates – unless you live in DC and know the results of every election already. We’ll have lots of key results from our non-existent glass-enclosed nerve center at a late-night coffee shop in Dupont Circle tomorrow night. source (via)
1:22 // 3 years ago