Republicans in Virginia and a handful of other battleground states are pushing for far-reaching changes to the electoral college in an attempt to counter recent success by Democrats.
In the vast majority of states, the presidential candidate who wins receives all of that state’s electoral votes. The proposed changes would instead apportion electoral votes by congressional district, a setup far more favorable to Republicans. Under such a system in Virginia, for instance, President Obama would have claimed four of the state’s 13 electoral votes in the 2012 election, rather than all of them.
Other states considering similar changes include Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, which share a common dynamic with Virginia: They went for Obama in the past two elections but are controlled by Republicans at the state level.
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus recently voiced support for the effort, saying it is something that “a lot of states that have been consistently blue that are fully controlled red ought to be looking at.”
Umm … WTF?
If Republicans do not do better in the Hispanic community, in a few short years Republicans will no longer be the majority party in our state. If that happens, no Republican will ever again win the White House. New York and California are for the foreseeable future unalterably Democrat. If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple. We won’t be talking about Ohio, we won’t be talking about Florida or Virginia, because it won’t matter. If Texas is bright blue, you can’t get to two-seventy electoral votes. The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party.Republican Senator-Elect Ted Cruz • Discussing the GOP’s need for better outreach in Hispanic and Latino communities around the country, but particularly in his home state of Texas. The Lone Star State, and its 38 electoral college votes, remain central to the Republican Party’s presidential election strategy, and its loss could prove insurmountable for the GOP. While no one is suggesting such a flip will happen by 2016 (or even 2020), Cruz’s concerns follow similar comments made by one of former presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s own advisers last week. source
How a genius election-related graphic came together
The other night, I posted this really amazing New York Times graphic breaking down the numerous roads to Electoral College victory Obama and Romney can take. Think the graphic was cool? Now here’s how they did it. In the words of the Times’ very own Mike Bostock:
The hard part of this graphic, implementation-wise, is the animated transition as you flip states. Although this is superficially similar to collapsible interactive trees I had implemented previously, it turned out to be more challenging due to the pruning below decision nodes. To assist my thinking, I sketched out a sample tree with eight different interactions and the corresponding animations. With examples, it was possible to generalize the behavior of the transitions and start the implementation.
Which road do you think the Electoral College is going to take?
— Ernie @ ShortFormBlog
Infographic creators aspire to create something this awesome. And here it is.
Or how Obama wins without Ohio or Florida? Or what the most likely path is to a 269-269 electoral tie? Larry Sabato’s got you covered.
If the election were held today, an Associated Press analysis shows Obama would win at least 271 electoral votes, with likely victories in crucial Ohio and Iowa along with 19 other states and the District of Columbia. Romney would win 23 states for a total of 206.
To oust the Democratic incumbent, Romney would need to take up-for-grabs Florida, Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Virginia, which would put him at 267 votes, and upend Obama in either Ohio or Iowa.
The AP emphasizes, however, that the study is not meant to predict a victory, but to show where the election currently stands. (A president needs 270 electoral college votes to win, by the way.)
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