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May 23, 2012

Egypt’s historic presidential election begins today

  • 50 million eligible voters could cast their vote in the first presidential election since the departure of Hosni Mubarak
  • 14,000 judges will monitor polling places across the country to prevent fraud, intimidation, and ballot stuffing source

» While many polling places are reporting smooth sailing, Egypt’s election day has not been without incident, and many are shocked by voter turnout compared to November’s parliamentary elections. Some towns have seen as few as ten percent of the voting population cast a vote, though some analysts predict there will be an evening surge as adults get off work, and outdoor temperatures begin to drop. There have also been sporadic reports of bribery on the parts of various campaigns. Both the Muslim Brotherhood, and the campaign of candidate Kafr al-Sheikh, have allegedly distributed food and money in exchange for votes, though both groups have denied the allegations.

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15:53 // 1 year ago
May 6, 2012
jakke:

So here’s how things are looking for the Greek election. They’re at 82% reporting, but most of the remaining votes are around Athens, Piraeus, and Thessalonika - all strong SYRIZA territory. So we can probably expect a slight shift towards SYRIZA, but no more than a seat or two.
I was going to do a big long post on the possibilities for coalitions and so on, but with this seat distribution there are basically just two possibilities:
ND and PASOK continue on as a pro-austerity pro-bailout pro-eurozone coalition with the bare minimum number of seats until someone defects and the coalition collapses.
A fresh round of elections gets called for next month.
There really aren’t any other feasible governing prospects here. Honestly I’m expecting #2, because a “grand coalition” style government that received just under a third of the total vote (and around a quarter of the total vote in the capital) would be perceived as having very little legitimacy and almost certainly would not last.

Jakke knows more about international politics than you do. In this case, Greece.

jakke:

So here’s how things are looking for the Greek election. They’re at 82% reporting, but most of the remaining votes are around Athens, Piraeus, and Thessalonika - all strong SYRIZA territory. So we can probably expect a slight shift towards SYRIZA, but no more than a seat or two.

I was going to do a big long post on the possibilities for coalitions and so on, but with this seat distribution there are basically just two possibilities:

  1. ND and PASOK continue on as a pro-austerity pro-bailout pro-eurozone coalition with the bare minimum number of seats until someone defects and the coalition collapses.
  2. A fresh round of elections gets called for next month.

There really aren’t any other feasible governing prospects here. Honestly I’m expecting #2, because a “grand coalition” style government that received just under a third of the total vote (and around a quarter of the total vote in the capital) would be perceived as having very little legitimacy and almost certainly would not last.

Jakke knows more about international politics than you do. In this case, Greece.

(via soupsoup)

20:29 // 1 year ago
April 22, 2012
Contrary to what many believe, the central effect of such negative advertising isn’t to move voters from supporting another candidate to backing yours, as Mitt Romney and his allies have discovered during this primary season. The main effect is not even to move undecided voters into your column. No, the real effect of negative advertising is to energize and solidify support among your ideological base while turning everyone else off to the other candidate, the campaign and the entire electoral process. Negative advertising isn’t about changing minds; it’s about altering the composition of the voter pool on Election Day by turning moderate voters into non-voters.
The Washington Post’s Stephen Pearlstein • Offering a counterpoint to Ezra Klein’s point from the other night; Pearlstein suggests politicians want people to turn off from the political process, because it helps them stabilize the electoral pool come election time. Which is how we get stuff like Obama eating dog food on an Etch A Sketch with Mitt Romney’s face drawn on it, or something like that.
20:33 // 2 years ago
February 14, 2012

Pew study: Millions of voter registrations have significant errors

  • 1/8 of all voter registrations in the U.S. contain errors, Pew says
  • 24M voter registrations contain major errors, according to Pew
  • 2.7M people have current voter registrations in multiple states
  • 1.8M registered voters have one slight problem: they’re dead source

» Is this a sign of voter fraud? Not really, Pew says. The bigger problem, they claim, is that outdated methods are being used to sign voters up. They recommend a more centralized voting system that utilizes online registration — similar to the one eight states (Colorado, Delaware, Maryland, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Virginia and Washington) are already working on. They suggest such a system will save money by preventing duplication and cutting down on form usage.

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10:30 // 2 years ago
February 6, 2012
14:40 // 2 years ago
December 27, 2011

Rick Perry sues Virginia GOP over ballot exclusion

  • SUE 'em if they don’t let you on the ballot! source

» That’s Rick Perry’s calculus: A total of five Republicans won’t appear (also including Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman) on the ballot in Virginia’s presidential primary, having failed to collect the 10,000 signatures required by state law, but Rick Perry is the only one to react with a lawsuit (so far). He’s suing the Virginia Republican Party, and the state board of elections, claiming that the state’s signature requirements — in particular, the provision that bans out-of-state circulators from gathering signatures — are unconstitutionally restrictive. Of course, he’s seeking retroactive change in the law, one that would allow him to appear on Virginia’s March 6th ballot after all. We agree with Talking Points Memo that suing one’s own party, even at a statewide level, isn’t normally the best move for a presidential candidate, but then again, what does he have to lose?

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22:28 // 2 years ago
December 1, 2011
The Salafis have been underestimated from day one, because it is hard to imagine how this guy with a long beard and some aggressive ideas can actually gain much support.
Shadi Hamid, a researcher at the Brookings Institution in Doha, Qatar • Discussing the elections in Egypt. So far, the Muslim Brotherhood’s party has received 40 percent of the Egyptian Parliament’s votes. Meanwhile, the Al Nour party, formed by ultra-conservative Salafis, has secured 25 percent. The Islamist party began re-entering politics after Mubarak was ousted, and rallied around millions of Egyptians who were already organized politically. That’s at least double the members of the Muslim Brotherhood. While they may not have pulled ahead in this election, the Salafi sect has become a prominent political force nonetheless. (EDIT: Modified wording based on reader suggestion.) source (viafollow)
23:13 // 2 years ago
November 30, 2011

The dawn of a new system? That should certainly be the hope following the closing of polls in Egypt’s first democratic election of the modern political era. The reporting on instances of fraud or abuse during the elections have, to this point, not been particularly widespread or damaging; the relative calm with which the process was carried out, as well as high voter turnout (70%+), would seem to suggest an engaged electorate eager to install their own leadership, and to bring an end to military rule. source

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15:07 // 2 years ago
November 28, 2011
New elections, new attitude? Egypt’s elections go smoothly (so far)
Egypt headed to the polls today: In this photo via ITV News, you can see a small portion of the crowds that gathered to vote in this week’s elections in Egypt. No protests broke out on the first day — a change of pace from last week’s protests in Tahrir Square. In fact, reports of violence were rare, and voter fraud was rare. Here’s to hoping the events have begun to usher in a new era and a more positive Egypt.  source
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Egypt headed to the polls today: In this photo via ITV News, you can see a small portion of the crowds that gathered to vote in this week’s elections in Egypt. No protests broke out on the first day — a change of pace from last week’s protests in Tahrir Square. In fact, reports of violence were rare, and voter fraud was rare. Here’s to hoping the events have begun to usher in a new era and a more positive Egypt.  source

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23:53 // 2 years ago
October 9, 2011
No one is going to get perfect in a general election candidate. That is why we think the Senate is a better place to focus.
FreedomWorks president Matt Kibbe • Effectively saying that Tea Party groups plan to focus on the presidential election, and instead put their energies towards helping the GOP win back the U.S. Senate, which the Democrats control with a slight majority. The race totals favor the GOP winning more seats — 23 of the 33 seats up for grabs next year are in Democratic power, and at least a few of those seats up for grabs because Senators are retiring — most notably those of Jim Webb and Kent Conrad. Do you guys think the GOP has a chance at getting the Senate back in 2012, especially considering increased Tea Party focus? source (viafollow)
11:47 // 2 years ago