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March 25, 2013
The Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE) is currently investigating Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann’s 2012 presidential campaign, on suspicion of improper usage of campaign funds, according to a new report from The Daily Beast. While Rep. Bachmann is not believed to have personally committed any criminal actions, investigators are trying to ascertain whether or not Bachmann was aware of under-the-table payments to several advisers and, if so, when she became aware of the cash transfers. While OCE has no real enforcement powers of any kind, the board does make direct recommendations to the House Ethics Committee, though we don’t suspect the threat of censure (a.k.a a stern talking to from Congress) particularly frightens Rep. Bachmann. (Photo via Gage Skidmore) source

The Office of Congressional Ethics (OCE) is currently investigating Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann’s 2012 presidential campaign, on suspicion of improper usage of campaign funds, according to a new report from The Daily Beast. While Rep. Bachmann is not believed to have personally committed any criminal actions, investigators are trying to ascertain whether or not Bachmann was aware of under-the-table payments to several advisers and, if so, when she became aware of the cash transfers. While OCE has no real enforcement powers of any kind, the board does make direct recommendations to the House Ethics Committee, though we don’t suspect the threat of censure (a.k.a a stern talking to from Congress) particularly frightens Rep. Bachmann. (Photo via Gage Skidmore) source

14:14 // 1 year ago
August 4, 2012
What’s the downside? Jon Stewart getting all serious and haughty? Harry Reid could not care less.
A Harry Reid confidante, quoted in Politico • On the majority leader’s recent allegations about Mitt Romney. Stewart called Reid a “really terrible person” for citing an anonymous source’s claim that Romney paid no taxes for ten years saying that Romney’s dad would be ashamed of him for not releasing his tax returns. According to the article, however, “it’s impossible to say how little [Reid] cares” about Stewart’s criticism. “He literally could not care less,” Reid’s confidante said. The article in whole is a good “Reid” (hah!), as it gets into why the Nevada Democrat’s recent attacks are a win-win for Democrats. In short: If Republicans remain silent on the claims, that suggests that they’re true. But if Republicans respond to them—and they have been—then the issue of Romney’s taxes remains in the news cycle, and that’s what Democrats want. It’s rare that any politician finds an opportunity to hit the other party that’s both risk-free and high-gain, but this seems to be exactly that (Correction: Tumblr user SavageMike points out that Stewart’s criticism was directed at a statement Reid made about Romney’s father, not the no-taxes-for-ten-years claim).  source (viafollow)
4:21 // 2 years ago
February 6, 2012

Obama opens up big lead over Romney in general election polling

  • 9 point lead for Obama over Romney in the latest WaPo/ABC News Poll source

» It’s the largest lead either candidate has held over one another since The Washington Post/ABC News started polling Romney-Obama match-ups in April of last year. It’s also a huge reversal from just a month ago, when Romney led Obama by one. Why the change? Well, it could be the (slowly) improving economy, or the insanity of the Republican primary taking its toll on all the Republicans, or Romney saying that he’s “not concerned about the very poor" on CNN last week. Or maybe, people are just fickle, and Romney will be twelve points ahead of Obama next week.

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14:11 // 2 years ago
November 27, 2011
10:39 // 2 years ago
October 23, 2011
I believe that Iraq should reimburse the United States fully for the amount of money that we have spent to liberate these people. They are not a poor country.
Rep. Michele Bachmann during an interview with CBS News’ “Face the Nation” Sunday morning.• Bachmann added that Iraq was a “wealthy country” that would be “subject to dominance by Iran and their influence in the region” once American troops withdraw by the end of the year. source (viafollow)
16:33 // 2 years ago
September 23, 2011
[Rick Perry] needs a debate coach, and if he already has one, he needs to fire a debate coach and hire another.
Ed Morrissey, skewering Perry’s debate performance last night. The attached link has the rather cringe-inducing video, wherein Perry inexplicably blows an easy, obviously rehearsed attack line. (from HotAir)
15:56 // 3 years ago
August 30, 2011
Forecasting model with perfect record predicts Obama reelection
 In 1981, a professor at American University developed a forecasting model for presidential elections. Based on thirteen different metrics, or “keys,” the model has never been wrong. In 1992, it spotted George H.W. Bush’s vulnerability when everybody assumed he was invincible; that prediction was instrumental in convincing Bill Clinton to enter the race. Which is to say, were it not for Allan Lichtman and his “Thirteen Keys,” we may have never had a President Clinton. Now, Lichtman has applied his model to 2012. Here’s how Obama stacks up:
Reelection Working in the president’s favor are his significant domestic policy accomplishments, a lack of scandals, a weak Republican field, generally successful foreign policy, no significant third party candidates, no primary challenger and a lack of sustained social unrest.
Defeat So why might Obama have reason to worry? Well, the long-term economy, a lack of personal charisma, the results of the last House election and, if it comes to fruition, an upcoming recession could all spell trouble for his reelection campaign.
» Conclusion: “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman says. The President wins 9 out of the 13 keys, two more than needed. Now, there’s lots of room for debate here—for example, is it really true that Obama lacks personal charisma? Lichtman’s rationale here is that the president has “lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election,” but that’s debatable. And do we know for certain that Rick Perry won’t prove to be a dazzling candidate, charming voters across the nation? Furthermore, a lot can happen between now and 2012: a surprise rebound of the economy, an unforeseen international crisis, or some other black swan event. But as it stands, this metric is some of the best reelection news Obama’s had in months. (Photo: Reuters/Jim Young). source
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In 1981, a professor at American University developed a forecasting model for presidential elections. Based on thirteen different metrics, or “keys,” the model has never been wrong. In 1992, it spotted George H.W. Bush’s vulnerability when everybody assumed he was invincible; that prediction was instrumental in convincing Bill Clinton to enter the race. Which is to say, were it not for Allan Lichtman and his “Thirteen Keys,” we may have never had a President Clinton. Now, Lichtman has applied his model to 2012. Here’s how Obama stacks up:

  • Reelection Working in the president’s favor are his significant domestic policy accomplishments, a lack of scandals, a weak Republican field, generally successful foreign policy, no significant third party candidates, no primary challenger and a lack of sustained social unrest.
  • Defeat So why might Obama have reason to worry? Well, the long-term economy, a lack of personal charisma, the results of the last House election and, if it comes to fruition, an upcoming recession could all spell trouble for his reelection campaign.

» Conclusion: “Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman says. The President wins 9 out of the 13 keys, two more than needed. Now, there’s lots of room for debate here—for example, is it really true that Obama lacks personal charisma? Lichtman’s rationale here is that the president has “lost his ability to connect since the 2008 election,” but that’s debatable. And do we know for certain that Rick Perry won’t prove to be a dazzling candidate, charming voters across the nation? Furthermore, a lot can happen between now and 2012: a surprise rebound of the economy, an unforeseen international crisis, or some other black swan event. But as it stands, this metric is some of the best reelection news Obama’s had in months. (Photo: Reuters/Jim Young). source

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22:06 // 3 years ago
August 26, 2011

What do Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani have in common?

  • 26% Rick Perry’s average support in GOP primary polls since announcing his candidacy; he’s now in the lead
  • 29% Rudy Giuliani’s average support in GOP primary polls at this point in 2007; he was then in the lead source

» Just a reminder of how difficult it is to predict the outcomes of presidential primaries  six months before Iowa. It’s also instructive to recall another Southern Republican who, four years ago, was seen as a savior by the GOP establishment. He announced his candidacy late in the game, and immediately vaulted to the top of the polls. That candidate was Fred Thompson.

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14:57 // 3 years ago