» That’s according to Nate Silver: Silver crunched the numbers and did the math, and the average non-incumbent winner of the New Hampshire primary wins roughly 39 percent of the vote. Silver has Romney getting right around 39 percent. “If Mitt Romney stays close to our forecast and gets about 39 percent of the vote in New Hampshire tonight, his performance will be highly typical for the winner of the primary,” Silver writes.
The field has a pretty obvious split: Those who like Mitt Romney and those who don’t. But there are some interesting details to note about New Hampshire Republican primary voters. First, Bachmann’s debate performance now has her polling above Sarah Palin, which is kind of a big deal. Second, Newt Gingrich is totally sucking. Third, despite many reasons to love him right now, Jon Huntsman has low polling numbers and low likability, which makes no sense. Finally, Rick Santorum is bringing up the rear — as he should. Either way, with the first big debate now in the rearview, the polling nonetheless is fascinating. source
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