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To be brutal, a certain amount of bad weather on election day helps conservatives in every democracy. In crude terms, car-driving conservative retirees still turn out in driving rain, when bus-taking lower-income workers just back from a night shift are more likely to give rain-soaked polls a miss.
The Economist, speculating on what effect—if any—Hurricane Sandy might have on the outcome of the election. “School closures are a particular problem for low-income families or single mothers scrambling to find childcare,” the columnist adds, and this could further surpress Democratic turnout. However, there’s also the possibility that Sandy could help Obama’s chances. The theory here is that the news coverage devoted to the storm will prevent any serious change in the media narrative of the race from taking hold, and because Obama is still the favorite for reelection, this could end up “freezing the election campaign, and Mr Romney’s perceived momentum, in place.” In truth, it’s anyone’s guess as to what effect Sandy will have on the polls. Thankfully, though, the storm is expected to clear up by November 6th, so it may ultimately be a moot point. —Seth @ ShortFormBlog (via election)
October 29, 2012 // 18:56 // 1 year ago
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